Experts Predict Strong Year for Digital Offers

COUPON OFFICIALS expect continued growth in usage of digital offers in 2024 at the expense of paper coupons. Meanwhile, coupon fraud will continue to roil the industry calling for new technologies and increased vigilance to reduce this illegal activity. 

CPGmatters asked the leaders of the coupon industry for their predictions for 2024. Here is what they said:

Sandi Kleemann, General Manager, Redemption Processing Representatives (RPR):

Consumers who eagerly await the arrival of the Sunday paper with coupon inserts are going to be disappointed in the new year. That doesn’t mean that paper coupons are going to disappear, but the method of distribution is changing and sitting at the kitchen table cutting out coupons will be almost a ‘thing of the past’.

While the redemption of digital coupons has surpassed that of traditional paper coupons, we should be aware, however, that does not mean digital coupons do not come without issues. Currently there are several states looking at possible discrimination against the elderly and lower income consumers who do not have access to electronic devices. And, obviously, this is the segment of the population who is most affected by the rising cost seen at the grocery stores.

When discussing coupons, the subject of fraud frequently comes up. There are several things on the horizon that may reduce—but not totally eliminate—fraud. They include the increase in digital coupons over paper, apps enabling retailers to determine fraudulent coupons as they are scanned, and the nationwide launch of The Coupon Bureau’s universal digital coupon.

Coupons are an effective tool to encourage trial, reward existing consumers and help reduce the cost of the weekly grocery bill. We look forward to the many positive changes coming in the future. 

Rob Weisberg, EVP, President, Martech, a division of Inmar Intelligence:

Overall coupon redemption from Jan - November 2023 was up 10% over the same time period in 2022. This is driven heavily by increases in both distribution and redemption of digital offers, with digital redemption increasing by +32% in 2023, and we expect to see a continued rise in 2024. FSI coupons will continue to see declines in distribution and redemption. Although a small percentage of all coupons distributed/redeemed, other paper coupon methods increase or remain flat in distribution and redemption. We expect this trend to continue, with overall coupon redemption volume predicted to continually increase, driven nearly exclusively by the continued growth in digital coupons.

Throughout 2023, shopper demand for and usage of coupons has remained high. Most recently, 92% of shoppers said coupons were an important factor in their grocery planning and purchase decisions, and 55% of shoppers said they regularly look for digital coupons before or during their in-store shopping trips. At the same time, 96% of shoppers expect their coupon usage to stay the same or increase over the next six months. 

As myriad factors continue to cause shoppers financial pressure (price increases, lagging wage increases, higher debt, student loans restarting, etc.), shoppers will maintain behavior shifts we’ve witnessed over the last year such as brand-switching, particularly to private label, retail-switching, and shoppers planning around coupons and savings. Leading brands and retailers will need to offer competitive savings and prioritize targeting shoppers with the right messaging and savings to maximize their return. 

Bud Miller, Executive Director, Coupon Information Center (CIC):

Coupon fraud has the attention of every industry participant. Counterfeiting, return fraud, coupon decoding (known as glittering or theft by deception), receipt-based promotion fraud, and other frauds are being addressed from multiple angles. These efforts will provide a rich and growing menu of loss prevention opportunities in 2024:

High Tech

• Positive Offer Files
• Negative Offer Files
• Combinations of both
• CIC Suspect Coupon Checker App
• Other automated solutions
• 8112 barcodes

Mid Tech

• Execution – Flawless as possible, with effectiveness, efficiency, costs, and asset protection in mind
• Sandbox – Testing of promotions prior to implementation. Taking promotions for a “test drive” in a real-world environment can reduce errors and associated losses

Low Tech

• Sound Policies – Clear, consistent, balanced
• Employee Training – Common sense, situational awareness
• Enhanced dialogue between industry partners 

Layered Defense

CIC recommends industry participants use a layered defense to provide multiple levels of protection. 

2024 and Beyond

• Astute industry participants will prepare for “Digital Divide” challenges
• Criminals will study all available information about industry efforts and attempt to circumvent them
• Law Enforcement – More cases breaking soon
• Implementation of the recent technologies will be critical 
• Security “Carve Outs” or rule exceptions may weaken loss prevention efforts
• Policy updates by proactive industry participants

Retailers can start 2024 off right by attending CIC’s free February 2024 Meeting, including its popular “Retailers’ Roundtable” in Fort Lauderdale. Contact the CIC at aa@couponinformationcenter.com for more information.